[Editor’s note: this article was first published in  Febraury 2009]

Erez Rotem, former journalist for Channel 2 Israeli Television and currently the Jewish National Fund’s Prairie Region Emissary , told a  gathering of about 25 people  that  Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu of the Likud  is more likely than Tzipi Livni of Kadima to order a military  strike on Iran  in an attempt to prevent it from becoming a nuclear power.

Rotem spoke about the current situation in Israel at an event sponsored by the Rady J.C.C. on February 17, 2009.

Rotem, who anticipates that Netanyahu will become the next  Prime Minister of  Israel, said  that “I think that Netanyahu has a much more clear agenda about Iran[than Livni]. Livni might do it in the end [launch a military strike] but she will push  it off until the end before taking military action.”

In his talk, Rotem showed television interviews from CNN and Fox TV  in which Netanyahu was very firm in saying that  he believes  the Iranian President  intends to eliminate Israel and “the most important thing is to make sure that Iran doesn’t obtain nuclear weapons.”  In one of the interviews he gave several months ago, Netanyahu spoke about the danger of engaging  Iran and giving it too much time,  and warned “we must keep our eye on the ball.”

Erez Rotem’s assessment is consistent with that of Uriel Heilman, Managing Editor of the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, [JTA] in New York.  Heilman met with  me when was in  New York on February 13, and said “ If Bibi [Netanyahu] is Prime Minister, [not Livni], that makes it more likely that Israel will strike Iran.”

In an interview in New York, Heilman said, “ the information I have is that Iran is about 2 years away from developing nuclear weapons and that any nuclear strike Israel would take would only delay Iran becoming nuclear, not prevent it.” 

Heilman added that it’s not clear how successful a military strike could be, and suggestions that a strike will be successful “may be Israeli wishful thinking.”

In his talk at the Rady JCC, Rotem said that Israel will do what it feels is necessary to protect her citizens, notwithstanding what the U.S. or the rest of the world thinks and “we may see this sooner than you might think.” 

He also said it was an open question whether Israel will have to launch another military operation in the Gaza strip in the future “ in a few months” to prevent Hamas from re-arming.

In his talk, Rotem showed footage from Channel 2 Israeli Television regarding the extensive number of tunnels Hamas had been digging which his former colleague Ronni Daniel prepared almost a year ago.  Rotem emphasized how it was clear from the report that up until Israel’s most recent military operation Egypt had been turning a “blind eye” to this extensive weapon smuggling.

When asked whether he thought Hamas would continue to get funding for weapons from Iran and others, he said that about three weeks ago, the Egyptians uncovered someone trying to smuggle 3  million dollars and two million Euro into Gaza, and  that money “was going to  pay salaries  of the terror  organization.” 

Rotem also said that in south Lebanon Hizbollah was quietly re-arming and building up its strength “and it is just a question of time” before they decide to try to kidnap other IDF soldiers again.

Rotem also showed footage of a Hamas terrorist dragging a child by the hand and pulling the child in front of him to use as a human shield. The footage was shown on Ch 10 Israeli news and was taken by an IDF unit.

Rotem also showed television footage by Salaam Eid and John Waage of CBN News showing an Al Qaida terrorist camp in the northern eastern edge of Gaza, in a place called Beit Hanuoun. Beit Hanoun is   a missile and rocket launching site.
 

Rotem also showed footage from Aljazeera television which showed that the Israeli Defense forces had blown up a mosque, where Palestinian funerals were going to take place.  Aljazeer’s report left the impression that Israel’s actions were intended to prevent the funerals from taking place.  However, then Rotem showed footage from the Israeli Defense Forces shot from the air which showed that when the mosque was bombed there was a secondary explosion.  Rotem explained that this secondary explosion was due to the fact that Hamas had used the mosque as a “large weapons cache.”

Rotem is of the view that Israel needs its own equivalent to Al Zazeera. “If we had our own English network, then maybe  C.B.C.  TV in Canad would be using our footage, not Al Jazeera’s…There have been plans for Israel to try to do this , but the plans were dropped because of  [ a lack of ] money...After this latest operation, this issue was raised again. We are looking into financing and there are questions whether this network should be part of the Israel Broadcasting Authority, governmental or private.  But in the long run a 24 hour news network giving the Israeli perspective on what’s going on would be a good thing to develop,”  he said.

According to Rotem, during Israel’s most recent military operation in Gaza, “the Palestinians in the West Bank understood it was preferable to stand aside rather than have the same thing happen to them.  They understood that the well –being of [their] people push them to stand against Hamas.”

Rotem also noted that more than 543 rockets fired during the “state of calm” [ceasefire] in the six months prior to Dec 19, 2008.

Rotem said that since 2005, when Israel ceased controlling the Philadelphia corridor  when it disengaged  from Gaza, it became easier for Hamas to smuggle arms.

When asked whether he thought it was a mistake for Israel to leave the Philadelphia Corridor, Rotem said “It was risky to leave the Philadelphia corridor but I don’t think you can call it a mistake to have tried to reach an understanding with the Palestinians. The Oslo Accords were also risky but you want to tell your kids that we did everything we could to try to bring peace.  Most Israelis supported disengagement so I can’t now say it was a mistake,” Rotem said.

Rotem said that Israel’s latest military operation made the Egyptians understand that it was not in their best interests to allow  the arms build up that has been going on Gaza, “because the same [extremist] elements such as the Muslim Brotherhood that are in Gaza are working in Egypt and will try to overthrow Mubarak.”

In an interview after the event, Rotem said that he thought that Netanyahu will form a government but “I’m not sure how long it will last.”