1.Right wing journalist Caroline Glick, who likely has sources close to Netanyahu, has said that when US Secretary of State Blinken was in Israel he went into the war room and told PM Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz,  that the US would refuse to re-supply Israel with needed weaponry to defang Hamas (such as bunker buster bombs to bomb the Hamas tunnels, artillery shells, spare parts for U.S. planes that Israel uses, etc), unless Israel agreed to allow truckloads of humanitarian aid through the Rafah crossing on Egypt's border.

Glick’s report is partially confirmed in that Israeli Channel 12 TV analysts indicated Blinken was in fact in the war room for 7 hours until past 3 a.m, getting Israel to agree to allow in humanitarian aid, and that Biden said he would not come to visit Israel until he was assured Israel would agree to this. According to Glick, Hamas controls how that aid will be distributed, such that much of the aid will likely go to Hamas fighters, not civilians, and that unless Israel inspects the aid convoys there will be weapons hidden in that aid, which is inspected by U.N. employees who will be Hamas sympathizers or Gazans who will afraid of being killed by Hamas if they tell the truth and say weapons are being hidden in the aid trucks.

Glick also said Netanyahu did not in fact invite Biden to Israel, but that Biden asked to be invited not only to ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza, but because he wanted to delay Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza, as he did not want Israel to take control of Gaza and did not want Israel to go into Gaza, unless Israel has an end game for who would be in charge of Gaza after Hamas is toppled.  

To see Glick’s report, go to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xwPA57xOXA

On Oct 21, Israeli Channel 12 television published a report that confirms part of Glick’s report, quoting Yoav Gallant, Israel’s Defense Minister as saying that Israel agreed to humanitarian aid, even though it’s clear part of the aid could go to Hamas, and it’s not clear who would inspect all the aid, because “we are dependent on the U.S. for planes and military equipment. We couldn’t say no.”[my translation]

An Oct 25 article by Axios indicates that ”Biden wants more aid delivered to as many Palestinians as possible, to limit a humanitarian crisis and remove global backlash.”

2. It’s important to note, that Israeli Channel 12 television in Hebrew a couple of days ago indicated that Biden told Israel he preferred that Israel not have a ground invasion, but that Israel said one would be needed to meet  its goal of eliminating Hamas.

While boarding Air Force One, Biden was asked by a reporter whether Israel should push off a military operation in Gaza, to which he responded, “yes.”  I think Biden lost his internal censor and was telling the truth. But the Whitehouse walked back his comments right away with a rather lame explanation. “The president was far away. He didn’t hear the full question. The question sounded like ‘Would you like to see more hostages released?’ He wasn’t commenting on anything else,” White House spokesperson Ben LaBolt was quoted as saying by Reuters.

4. Israeli Channel 12 TV's analyst Ehud Ya'ari just reported in Hebrew on Oct 26 that the leading Saudi Arabian journalist has said that Hamas leader Sinyar and the rest of the  Hamas leadership should leave Gaza just like Arafat had to leave Lebanon in 1982.  Is it very possible that this is what Biden wants to see happen, although I don't see that as likely. 

Note that according to an Oct 19 report by the Guardian, US diplomats had hoped that with unanimous pressure from the Arab world, Hamas could be forced to leave Gaza for an agreed haven, just as the Palestine Liberation Organisation left Lebanon for Tunisia in 1982. The Gaurdian quoted Yossi Melman, an Israeli intelligence expert, as indicating that that is what the planned summit between Biden and Egyptian, Jordanian and Palestinian Authority leaders in Amman, which was cancelled, was supposed to be about.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/19/israeli-military-discussing-alternatives-full-gaza-invasion-joe-biden#:~:text=Joe%20Biden%20has%20said%20that,Hamas%20attack%20on%207%20October

After the attack on a Gaza hospital which killed 500 Palestinians, Jordan announced it was cancelling the summit with Biden, as the Arab street blamed Israel for this incident (albeit the US and Canada have confirmed that the hospital was hit by a rocket launched by Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which was misfired.)

5.There is a piece by Thomas Friedman in the New York Times of Oct, 16, which calls on Israel not to  have a full invasion of Gaza. Since Friedman is close to Biden, and has been seen as Biden’s mouthpiece before, it appears very possible that Biden has in fact been delaying Israel’s planned ground incursion into Gaza.

As Friedman wrote,"… if Israel still decides it must enter Gaza to capture and kill Hamas’s leadership, it must only do so if it has in place a legitimate Palestinian leadership to replace Hamas — so Israel is not left governing there forever. ”

Friedman continued that Biden must get “clear answers from Netanyahu”, for example, on who will govern Gaza once Israel topples Hamas, and whether Israel plans to help rebuild the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

Friedman ended his article by writing, "My bottom line? Just ask this question: If Israel announced today that it was forgoing, for now, a full-blown invasion of Gaza, who would be happy, and who would be relieved, and who would be upset? Iran would be totally frustrated, Hezbollah would be disappointed, Hamas would feel devastated — its whole war plan came to naught — and Vladimir Putin would be crushed, because Israel would not be burning up ammunition and weapons the U.S. needs to be sending to Ukraine. The settlers in the West Bank would be enraged.

Meanwhile, the parents of every Israeli soldier and every Israeli held hostage would be relieved, every Palestinian in Gaza caught in the crossfire would be relieved, and every friend and ally Israel has in the world — starting with one Joseph R. Biden — would be relieved."

To read Friedman’s article, go to:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/16/opinion/israel-gaza-war.html

In a second article, Friedman has also suggested that Israel “would be much better off framing any Gaza operation as “Operation Save Our Hostages” — rather than “Operation End Hamas Once and for All” — and carrying it out, if possible, with repeated surgical strikes and special forces that can still get the Hamas leadership but also draw the brightest possible line between Gazan civilians and the Hamas dictatorship.”

To read this Friedman article, go to https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/biden-speech-israel-gaza.html?

6. Various media have reported that the US has sent Marine Lt. Gen James Glynn-who fought in urban combat in Mosul to advise Israel on their military planning. Instead of launching a full scale invasion as Israel may well have planned to do initially, the US appears to wants Israel to use precision airstrikes and special operation raids.

According to a report in Politico, “Initial Israeli plans were to launch an all-out assault with tanks rolling over the border. But, increasingly, conversations are turning to a more counterterrorism-centric approach with a heavy reliance on special forces.”

Last night the IDF carried out a "targeted raid" in the northern part of Gaza with infantry forces and tanks, striking Hamas terrorists, infrastructure and anti-tank guided missile launch positions. The IDF says it is preparing the border area for the next phase of the war," which Netanyahu has indicated will be a ground incursion –but he won’t “specify when, how, how many.”

It should be remembered that most of Israel’s soldiers are reservists who have not been specifically trained for hand to hand combat in urban warfare with a network of booby trapped tunnels.

An Oct 25, Axios report has indicated that Biden “fears a quick, impulsive assault on Gaza will land Israel in a long, bloody street battle that could kill tens of thousands of people-and still not destroy Hamas. It could also push Hezbolllah and other Iranian proxies to join the war-with deployed American’s in harms way.”

Axios has also reported that Netanyahu is risk averse and wants time to think. Israel TV has reported that Netanyahu has met with former Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi to get his views. Netanyahu also seems to be willing to give time for hostage-release talks, as the IDF better prepares.

Biden is worried that the hostages could be used as human shields, and he wants more time to fortify American military presence in the Middle East, should Iran or its proxies fully attack Israel.

https://www.axios.com/2023/10/25/biden-israel-hamas-strategy-gaza-invasion

On the other hand, the longer Israel waits for a ground incursion, the longer Hamas has to prepare.

7. I have wondered whether if  Biden can successfully pressure Qatar to make Hamas deliver over the Israeli hostages, will the US call for a ceasefire, even if Hamas remains in power. I don’t know the answer, but I do know that the left wing of Biden’s party will likely want a ceasefire to occur, and Biden may well not wish to alienate Arab American voters, or younger Democratic voters, many of whom are pro-Palestinian, and support Hamas over Israel. At the end of the day, Biden wants to make sure he will win the election. But the Congress and the Senate may well be more likely to  back Israel in defanging Hamas. It should also be noted that Hamas's political wing lives in Qatar, such that it remains to be seen how Israel would be able to eliminate them.

8. Analysts on Israel Channel 12 TV's website Oct 17, indicated that Biden came to the Middle East not only to meet with  Israeli leaders but that he was also coming to the region because he wanted to push the need for a two state solution, with Arab leaders from Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority.(But this didn't occur, sine the summit was cancelled 

9.  Several media reports have indicated that Biden also asked that Israel not pre-emptively strike Hezbollah in the north, as Israel may well have planned on doing, so as not to cause a wider regional war.