John Spencer, one of the world’s leading experts on urban warfare, told a sold out crowd at the Berney Theatre that it is essential that Hamas not win the war in Gaza “because if any proxy of Iran thinks it can invade, retreat back and stay in power,” this will be a recipe for ongoing disaster, as this what will be acted out elsewhere in the Middle East and the world.

In addition to his personal experiences from 25 years as an infantry soldier and officer in the US Army, including urban battles of Iraq in 2003 and the Battle of Sadr City in 2008,  Spencer has  spent over a decade researching, publishing, and lecturing on all facets of urban warfare. He gave a talk and then engaged in a fireside chat with family law lawyer Lawrence Pinsky, a partner at Taylor McCaffrey and a former Human Rights adjudicator.

Spencer said that after Oct 7, the U.S. military advised Israel not to launch a large scale invasion of Gaza  but instead to use to special forces and pinpoint attacks  but that this “strategy “would not have brought back the hostages or defeated Hamas.” He added that if the U.S. had been in Israel’s shoes, it would have not hesitated to use far more combat soldiers and would have kept this up until all the rockets from Gaza had stopped.

Having been to Gaza three times since the current conflict broke out, Spencer emphasized “Hamas is not an insurgency…It was the government of an autonomous region. It was a military...If Israel installs a new government in Gaza then Hamas would be an insurgency.”

Oct 7 was not just a terror attack but “a military invasion” according to Spencer in that Hamas invaders had maps to Tel-Aviv and Jerusalem, and expected the West Bank and Hezbollah to join in.”

Spencer indicated out that that what is different about this war compared to others he has studied is that no one would take in Gazan refugees, unlike other wars, where civilians could evacuate the war zone. He pointed fingers specifically  at Egypt, saying “thousands of deaths are on Egypt,” which did not allow one Gazan civilian into the Sinai where there was lots of room, and built a high wall  to keep Gazan’s out. “Israel had to fight this war where civilians had no safe place to go.” Spencer added that the U.S. should have pressed Egypt to build a big Displaced Person’s Camp on the Egyptian side of the border with Gaza.

In Spencer’s assessment, Israel is winning this war is that because “Israel’s strength has been shown.”

He stressed that “Israel has taken more measures to prevent civilian harm than any military in the history of war”- above & beyond what international law requires & more than the US did in its wars in Iraq & Afghanistan.”

Spencer elaborated that the IDF 1 to 1.5 if not 1 to 1 combatant to civilian ratio is better than any battles, past or modern, in urban warfare with even a remotely similar context. He pointed out that the Hamas run Gaza Health Ministry estimate of civilian deaths does not acknowledge a single Hamas fighter death (nor any deaths due to the misfiring of thousands (20%) of Hamas or other terrorists’ rockets that have landed inside Gaza or Hamas friendly fire, Hamas killing civilians, or deaths by natural causes. Combined with historical Hamas exaggerations, in Spencer’s estimation the combatant to civilian death ratio is more likely 1 to 1 which would be historically low for high intensity urban warfare. (In arriving at this ratio, Spencer cited the fact that there according to the Gazan Health Ministry run by Hamas, 40, 988 civilians died. But Israel says 18,000 were Hamas combatants.)

In the 2016-2017 Battle of Mosul, the biggest urban battle since WWII, the U.S. led Iraqi Security Force killed 10,000 civilians to destroy 4,000 ISIS in the city. That is a 1 to 2.5 combatant to civilian death ratio. In the 1945 Battle of Manila  (which did have some variables similar to Gaza like high number of defenders, tunnels, and hostages), the American military killed 100,000 civilians to destroy 17,000 Japanese defenders, and that is a 1 to 6 ratio. The 1950 Second Battle of Seoul (another battle with similar variables to the battles in Gaza) American forces likely killed tens of thousands (there is no record of how many died in the city battle out of the 2 million civilians that died in the war) to kill 7,000 North Korean enemy.

Regarding the Houthis,  Spencer told the Winnipeg Jewish Review the U.S. “absolutely made a mistake” regarding the Houthis , an Iranian proxy in Yemen that has attacked ships and later attacked Tel-Aviv. The U.S in removed the Houthis as a terror group and gave them money in the expectation that they would adopt Western values and use the money for the good of their people. “We can’t impose our values on other people,” he stressed, noting that by the time the U.S. had fought back against the Houthis they had already greatly disrupted international shipping.

Spencer, who has served as an advisor to the top four-star general and other senior leaders in the U.S. Army as part of strategic research groups from the Pentagon to the United States Military Academy, noted that there are times when “inaction can lease to war more than action.”

Regarding Israel dropping 2000 pound bombs on Israel, Spencer noted that the U.S. “ dropped over 15,000 of these 2000 pound bombs in Iraq “ when I was there.” In Gaza’s case, he emphasized that the bombs need to be strong enough that they could penetrate the earth to get to the target[the underground tunnels].”

Since  Spencer spoke on 9 /11, the Winnipeg Jewish Review asked him why after 9/11 no one complained when the US went into Afghanistan to destroy the Taliban, but when Israel responds to a major  invasion right on its borders, things are different. Spencer responded that of course, the U.S, like Russia is a super power and Israel is not. He noted “Israel’s history is that it is never allowed to win a war; it can only fight to a draw. That’s unfortunate.”  But, he added that Israel as a nation has shown immense strength in terms of who her allies are—the U.S, Saudi Arabia, and others.”

Regarding his experience in Gaza, Spencer said “every step you walk, there is an underground tunnel underneath…In Gaza Hamas builds a tunnel and then puts a school on top of it, not vice versa.”

Regarding the issue of proportionality,  Spencer maintains that under the laws of war, Israel has acted proportionately.” Israel waited three weeks before it invaded” and evacuated 85% of the population of northern Gaza before it attacked. Not only did Israel send leaflets,” but Israel left billions of calls, texts, and voicemails. We’ve never used electronic means…”Additionally, according to Spencer, Israel had many daily pauses in the fighting, “and no one has ever done that level of daily pauses” when conducting a war.

Spencer explained that Israel designated El Masri a humanitarian zone, “since it is on the beach and it’s the one place where there were no Hamas tunnels.

Spencer is of the view that no one really knows how many civilians have died in Gaza, especially not Hamas. There has never been a war/battle, especially an urban battle, where anyone could track the civilian deaths on a day-to-day basis. A year after the 2016-2017 Battle of Mosul, the Iraqi government did not know how many civilians had died in the battle with estimates from 11,000 to 40,000.

Spencer was critical of the Canadian government for ceasing arms sales to Israel, which ought to be supported to win the war and ensure Hamas is not left in power.

Regarding the Philedelphi corridor, Netanyahu has said that if Israel does not remain on this corridor then Sinwar will be able to use the cross border tunnels to escape with hostages, during a phased ceasefire agreement. Spencer hopes that there will be a new security wall between Gaza and Egypt that will be built with Egypt’s help.

Regarding Spencer noted that when he visited Gaza he saw "mountains" of unopened humanitarian aid  on the Gaza side of the border, and that rebut the notiion that Israel has starved Gazan's, but the problem is that Hamas has siphoned off this aid for its purposes. He pointed out that there has been enough aid sent to meet the necessary daily caloric count needed.

Spencer also stated sarcastically that if Israel was trying to committ genocide, then they are the "worst" in the world at this. 

Overflow crowd were seated in the Adult Lounge where some 20 plus people watched Spencer on a screen.

The program was organized by the Jewish Federation of Winnipeg, Tafsik, Blue and White, Manitoba Israel Coalition and volunteers, especially Candice Tennenbein. MP's Marty Morantz and James Bezan were in attendence.